False rumor, prejudice, blind spots 2; a rumor of the economy 2


 ジョージソロス

This time, I show that an epoch-making theory is dangerous.

 About “An exchange rate is decided by the ratio between the money supply of Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar.”

 

This is a remark of the popular person of the group of reflation.

He says it is very easy to make weak yen, and central bank should print paper money rapidly.

He grieves, because the people who do not understand even such a thing do politics.

 

It is very simple and wonderful, or another.

 

 

今回は、画期的な理論の危うさを見ます。

 

 「円と米国ドルの通貨量の比で為替レートは決まる」について

 

これは流行のリフレ派論客の発言です。

彼は円安に持って行くのは超簡単で、紙幣を刷れば良いだけだ。

こんなことすらわからない人々が政治をやっていると、嘆く。

 

非常にシンプルで素晴らしい、けれども・・・。

 

 

In the first place, why is the ratio of the money supply between two countries decided?

 

Is it a ratio of the national land and the population between the two countries?

 

Once, the world experienced a stagflation that proceeded simultaneously with a high inflation and a high unemployment, and each central bank controlled money supply in tandem with the economic growth.

Half a century ago, in addition, the American and European countries came into currency devaluation competition to get the advantage of domestic export, and the world economy was slowed down terribly.

To add to our concern, the expectation of the market price (animal spirit) controls most.

 

 

そもそも通貨量の比はどうして決まるのでしょうか?

 

両国の国土や人口の比率でしょうか?

 

かつて、高インフレと高失業率同時進行(スタグフレーション)を経験し、世界の中央銀行は経済成長に応じて通貨供給量をコントロールしてきました。

また欧米諸国は自国の輸出を有利するために通貨安競争に陥り、世界経済を失速させたことがあります。

さらにややこしいのは、相場の期待値(アニマルスピリット)が多くを左右するのです。

 

アジア通貨下落

The current exchange market changes dramatically by a short of the exchange of one hedge fund, such as Thai Bhat suddenly tumbled down at 1997.

George Soros of the ringleader says.

“Sometime, because somebody noticed a weak point of Thai Bhat and would carry it out, I had only done it first.”

In conclusion, the exchange rate is a result of the dealings among the government, the central bank, speculators, and companies of each country.

 

 

今の為替市場は、1997年のタイ・バーツ暴落のように、1ヘッジファンドの空売りで劇的に変化してしまうのです。

その張本人のジョージ・ソロスは言います。

「誰かがタイ政府の運営不備に気がついてやるだろうから、私が最初にやっただけさ。」

 

結局、為替レートは各国の政府、中央銀行、投機家、企業らがしのぎを削り、悪戦苦闘した結果なのです。

 

通貨供給量

 

We have to pay attention to any debater who say simple with certainty and talk exaggeratedly.

 

He only had said to an obese person, ” Your levels of neutral fat are only 20% more than the national average.”

A period of the graphs of his book was only a convenient period for him.

It was from 2007 to 2011 in the mentioned above graph.

 

We should understand the opinion while having doubt on the intention of an author.

 

 

単純に断定し、誇張する論者には注意が必要です。

   

それは、肥満の人に、「あなたは中性脂肪が平均より20%多いだけだよ」と指摘しているに過ぎないなのです。

彼が本のグラフには都合の良い期間(上記グラフの2007年~2011年)しか使われていません。

私達は、著者の意図や、信頼性を疑いながら理解すべきです。

 

 

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Categories: economy, opinion, politics, Series: False rumor, prejudice, blind spots | Tags: , , , | Leave a comment

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