False rumor, prejudice, blind spots 4: Trap of public construction projects 1


建設工事依頼

While Japan governments explain that public construction projects are necessary for economic recovery, they have spent a tax of 10-20 trillion yen every year.

Other advanced countries have been reducing greatly it for 30 years or more.

I watch the truth of the public construction projects.

 

Merits and demerits of the public construction

For example, construction and engineering companies are ordered public constructions for 10 trillion yen.

And then, the order companies get capital investment and purchase materials, and the employees spend family expenses, a total of the consumption may be 8 trillion yen.

And 2 trillion yen of the remainder is saved.

This consumption is repeated successively over several years, 50 trillion yen that theoretically becomes 5 times of it will increase GDP.

Since it had been carried out every year, the unemployment rate must have fallen, and the economic growth rate must have become 10%.

However, the growth rate has been falling every year, and became 0% at last, and accumulated debt went over quadrillion yen, and furthermore continues to increase toward an abnormal end.

 

 

景気回復に必要だからと、日本では毎年10~20兆円の税金を使って来ました。

他の先進国は30年以上も前から大幅に縮小しています。

公共工事の真実を見ます。

 

公共工事の功罪

10兆円が建設土木業界に発注されると、受注企業は設備投資と資材購入、給与を貰った従業員は生活費で計8兆円を消費し、残り2兆円は貯蓄をするとします。

この消費が順次に繰り返され、理論的には乗率5倍の50兆円が数年にかけてGDP増になる。

毎年実施して来たので、失業率は低下し景気が良くなり経済成長率は10%になるはずでした。

しかし成長率は年々低下し、ついに0%になり、累積債務は1000兆円を越えて増え続けています。

 

徳山ダム

< a dam construction  >

Why didn’t Japan’s economy recover?  

A multiplying factor of the economic effect has been falling every year, and became 1.3 or less, and the actual economic effect was low.

Because companies and people have felt uneasiness against their future, the companies reduced capital investment, and the people cut down consumption from the falling income in order to sock away money furthermore.

It is the reason.

In addition, because the difference of wealth and poverty became large, the property is gathering to the wealthy class that has few consumption rates

 

The economic effect decreases further because a fiscal resource of public construction projects is a loan.

The effect is theoretically only same 10 trillion yen that the government spent if it invests by the tax increase.

 

 

なぜ景気は回復しなかったのか?

l       経済効果の乗率は年々低下し1.3以下になり、実際の経済効果は低かった。

理由は、企業や国民は将来に不安を抱き、企業は設備投資を減らし、国民は低下する所得から、貯蓄に回す為にそれ以上に消費を減らしたからです。

さらに貧富の差が大きくなったことで、消費率が少ない富裕層に富みが増えているからです。

l       公共投資の財源は借入金なので、効果はさらに低下。

増税分で投資するなら、理論的に政府支出額と同じ10兆円の効果しかない(累積債務が増えると同様)。

 

糖尿病

What of public construction is the problem?

If public construction is stopped, the economy will get worse and remaining things will become only an immense cumulative deficit.

A mild diabetic lowers the blood sugar level by insulin and repeats gluttony, and became seriously injured.

Its process is same as so of public construction.

Japanese economy is in such a severe situation that a self-sustaining recovery is impossible except that Bank of Japan scatters much money with zero interest rates.

Japanese economy compensated by big spender’s public construction and was maintaining in zero economic growth somehow.

The worst situation will approach in the near future if we don’t escape from this vicious circle as soon as possible.

 

Next time, I show essential role of public construction, and an alternative solution.

 

 

 

公共工事の何が問題か?

公共工事を止めれば経済は悪化し、残ったのは莫大な累積赤字だけになる。

 

それは、軽度の糖尿病患者がインスリンで血糖値を下げ、飽食を繰り返し、重傷になってしまったのと同じです。

日本経済は日銀がゼロ金利でお金をばらまくぐらいでは、自律回復が出来ないほど酷い状況にあるのです。

その悪化を金食い虫の公共工事で埋め合わせ、なんとかゼロ成長を維持していたのです。

出来るだけ早く、この悪循環を脱しないと、最悪の事態が目前に迫っているかもしれません。

 

次回は、公共工事の本来の役割を探り、その役割を叶える代替案を提示します。

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: economy, <english language, <japanese language, opinion, politics, Series: False rumor, prejudice, blind spots | Tags: , , | 2 Comments

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2 thoughts on “False rumor, prejudice, blind spots 4: Trap of public construction projects 1

  1. こんにちは!
    政治家や官僚は、この巨額の赤字をどう思っているのでしょうか。
    自分の家の収支と置き換えてみたら大変さが分かるはずですが、、、、。
    きっと国の事なので他人事と思っているのでしょう!
    私のような小心者は心配でなりません。

    • 今回、安部さんは、この赤字を簡単に消す最後の手段に出ました。
      今のまま浪費を続ける為には、インフレが一番簡単な方法です。
      うまく行けば良いのですが、大概歴史的には大恐慌が待っています。
      同じミスを繰り返さないことを祈るだけです。

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